Comments for Psychohistory

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Nick Waddell

Nick Waddell — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 04:35:37 +0000

Great article Adam. It is interesting to wonder how the political discourse in the US would be different if the Dow was hitting all-time highs.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Apple’s surging valuation distorting stock market indexes | Brian's Blog Site

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 04:11:09 +0000

[...] blogger Adam Nash of Greylock Partners notes that, had Apple been added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rather than Cisco back in the summer [...]

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Apple’s surging valuation distorting stock market indexes | KC-NEWS

Apple’s surging valuation distorting stock market indexes | KC-NEWS — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 03:25:38 +0000

[...] other hand, blogger Adam Nash of Greylock Partners notes that, had Apple been added to [...]

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Craig Syverson

Craig Syverson — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 02:35:20 +0000

Excellent post, Adam!

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Adam Nash

Adam Nash — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 02:31:32 +0000

The Nasdaq isn’t an index, it’s a stock exchange. The Dow Jones index is just that, a list of thirty stocks picked editorially by a third party. Until the late 1990s, all Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks were listed on the NYSE, but that changed with the addition of Microsoft and Intel in 1999.

Apple is an older company than Cisco, a larger company than Cisco, a more profitable company than Cisco, and a faster growing company than Cisco. I’m curious what definition of “mature” or “stable” you are using to differentiate Apple vs. Cisco in June 2009.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Apple’s surging valuation distorting stock market indexes | iyaan.info

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 02:29:28 +0000

[...] blogger Adam Nash of Greylock Partners notes that, had Apple been added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rather than Cisco back in the summer [...]

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Adam Nash

Adam Nash — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 02:29:21 +0000

The basic premise of my post was not that AAPL should be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average per se, but that adding Cisco instead of Apple makes no sense. I don’t know how you define “stable”, but as of June 2009 Apple exceeds every definition of stable that Cisco did, unless you mean “stable = no growth”.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by How able would have saved Wall Street « A Man With A Ph.D.

How able would have saved Wall Street « A Man With A Ph.D. — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 01:50:44 +0000

[...] Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 [Via Daring Fireball] [...]

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Apple’s surging valuation distorting stock market indexes | Apple Stocks

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 01:02:20 +0000

[...] blogger Adam Nash of Greylock Partners notes that, had Apple been added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rather than Cisco back in the summer [...]

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Adam Nash

Adam Nash — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:36:15 +0000

Absolutely. Will fix.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Craig

Craig — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 23:50:57 +0000

Great article. The AAPL example works terrifically. Cheers.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Derek Kolb

Derek Kolb — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 22:42:57 +0000

This is not a concrete example of whatever it is you’re claiming. The Dow has a very specific purpose which is to perform as a barometer of the entire market, and the Dow does that reasonably well. The reason that the Dow works in this regard is that stable stocks are chosen for the index. AAPL is a growth monster, but it’s not an effective barometer for the market.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by ToughOnTech

ToughOnTech — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 22:38:49 +0000

I have to give you credit for an interesting post. But if you’re discussing things like this, you must know that it actually doesn’t matter one bit. Apple is listed on Nasdaq and not Dow Jones. We can argue why it should or shouldn’t be but it doesn’t matter very much in the big picture. Dow is just an index as is Nasdaq. And whether it’s nonsensical or not (it may very well be); nobody grades an entire economy on just one index. One index is after all, just a slice of the economy with certain characteristics.

Whether you like it or not, Apple and Google aren’t very mature or stable stockwise and so should probably not be on Dow at the moment. Being in one index or another doesn’t matter to Apple or the US economy in any way.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by AdamD

AdamD — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 19:55:46 +0000

Fascinating analysis, Adam! It’s a great “what if” and highly engaging.

P.S.: I’d missed your new gig. Congrats on that!

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by SI Hayakawa

SI Hayakawa — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 16:16:39 +0000

Typo: “Look, with 20/20 hindsight, there are limitless number of changes we could make to the index to change it’s value.” Should be “its value” (possessive).

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Luis Villa (@tieguy)

Luis Villa (@tieguy) — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 02:29:16 +0000

I’d always known that the DJIA was an arbitrary mess that no one should take seriously, but this concrete example is terrific (and a little terrifying in its political implications). I’ll definitely be using it in the future. Thanks, Adam.

Comment on Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Kyle Doherty (@kydoh)

Kyle Doherty (@kydoh) — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:45:06 +0000

Fantastic post — I honestly think more attention needs to be drawn to how little it really matters. The original creator actually only updated it about once per month to start and just used it as a rough guide for market movement of important companies.

Also, you could probably write ten posts on the selection bias inherent in the index (companies doing poorly are taken out) and how it’s not at all accurate in understanding long term returns of the market.

Comment on Pinterest & LinkedIn: Identity of Taste vs. Expertise by Authenticity Platforms, Part 2, Disposing of Crowns, Thrones, and Robes « takingpitches

Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:08:18 +0000

[...] week, in one of the best analyses I have seen of Pinterest, Adam Nash (EIR at Greylock Partners) distinguishes taste from expertise, in peeling back what in human behavior has driven the rapid adoption of Pinterest. Pinterest, [...]

Comment on Solution: Denon A/V Receiver AVR 1410/790 With No Sound by Connie

Connie — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 19:45:57 +0000

You, are amazing. A quick search for this odd problem that had me frustrated led me to your advice and what appears to be a solution! I, too, thought my receiver was possessed! I even shut down several other items in case there was interference! Thank you so much!

Comment on People You May Know on LinkedIn by Adam Nash

Adam Nash — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 06:00:21 +0000

The fact that you posted this comment under the name “Namerequired” and the email address “heythere@gmail.com” is beyond hilarious.

Comment on People You May Know on LinkedIn by Namerequired

Namerequired — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 23:02:03 +0000

transparency is the first step toward gaining trust and loyalty

Comment on Pinterest & LinkedIn: Identity of Taste vs. Expertise by Rafael Assuncao (@rassuncaojr)

Rafael Assuncao (@rassuncaojr) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 16:22:37 +0000

Hello Adam, I think that the concept of ‘identity of taste’ is great to explain Instagram huge success.
In addition, sounds that in some way sites like TripAdvisor and Yelp are based on same pilars.

Comment on Pinterest & LinkedIn: Identity of Taste vs. Expertise by Derek Andersen (@DerekjAndersen)

Derek Andersen (@DerekjAndersen) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:43:37 +0000

Good writeup. We’re combining the design/discoverability of PInterest with the professional needs of LinkedIn. You may be interested in checking it out. http://commonred.com

Comment on Your Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) is Worth a Lot More Than 15% by Adam Nash

Adam Nash — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:34:19 +0000

First, a reminder: I’m not a financial planner. Don’t make significant financial decisions based solely on my advice. There is no way I can possibly know enough about your situation to make an accurate recommendation.

If you download the spreadsheet I posted, you can shift the assumptions to monthly contributions. The end result will be similar – you get a very high IRR (internal rate of return), because you don’t have to put all the money up front, but make contributions every month. So that last check you write, one month before you cash out, has a very high rate of return since you get 15% for just 1 month of investment.

Personally, I always contributed the maximum to ESPP when I worked for a company that had it.

Comment on Your Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) is Worth a Lot More Than 15% by Dave

Dave — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:55:19 +0000

Hi Adam,

I have a question for you regarding my specific ESPP. Here are the details:

- I can contribute up to 15% of my base salary to the ESPP;
- Stock is purchased on the last day of EVERY MONTH, at the high-low AVERAGE on THAT DAY.
- I receive the same 15% discount on stock purchased as you describe in your article.
- Any Dividends paid out during the month-long period are reinvested a the time of purchase at the same 15% discount.

I am currently investing 5% of my base salary in my ESPP… based on these details, how advantageous would it be for me to invest more?

Thanks!!

Dave

Comment on Yes, You Can Get 1080P out of a Mac Mini by What do you have for a home server for multimedia?

What do you have for a home server for multimedia? — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:45:56 +0000

[...] can feed an HDTV and play DVDs and most video formats like DivX. No Blu-ray [...]

Comment on Solution: Denon A/V Receiver AVR 1410/790 With No Sound by ken

ken — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:11:18 +0000

thanks very much, adam! very appreciative of you spending a few minutes to save the rest of us a bunch of time! a puff of air, a little piece of tape over the headphone jack, and this now becomes a mildly amusing anecdote.

i’m totally blaming my wife for missing a spot while dusting.

Comment on Solution: Denon A/V Receiver AVR 1410/790 With No Sound by rob in Perth, Australia

rob in Perth, Australia — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 01:01:42 +0000

Bloody brilliant! Thanks so much for posting this solution. I was about to disconnect and take my Denon back to the dealer but a few puffs and all is fixed.

Comment on The Secret to Reformatting a Western Digital WD 1TB My Book External Hard Drive by Joyce Lazarus

Joyce Lazarus — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 14:45:30 +0000

I realize this is an old post but I’ve gotten myself into quite a fix. I purchased a 1T WD external hard drive for my iMac 10.7.2 but didn’t format it or partition it. Due to a series of apparent blunders, I can’t access anything I’ve copied to the WD nor can I unmount it (either on this mac or any of my other macs) Disk Utility will not allow me to partition or erase the drive because it is unable to unmount the disk. I’ve closed all applications, rebooted the computer, the finder, etc.. there seems to be no interference as far as applications go and I’m completely flummoxed. Can you possibly help me figure this out?
Many thanks,
Joyce

Comment on Proposed Solution: Quicken 2007 & Mac OS X Lion by Scott

Scott — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 17:46:48 +0000

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