The Transformers Brand Promise

Look, I’m not going to complain about the acting, the actors, the plot, the length or the production value.  Truth be told, I don’t expect a lot from a big budget remake of a popular 1980s cartoon.  I’m in the core demographic and I’m super forgiving.

However, I do expect just two things from the Transformers.  Just two.  And they didn’t give it to me.

I want to see robots, and I want to see those robots transform

Seriously.  It’s not more complicated than that

Enough with the Humans

OK, so given the premise, let’s look at what we actually got from the movie.

First, at least one full hour of the movie, if not more, is dedicated to the drama and suspense around the humans in the story.  Will they understand?  Will they make it?  Can they fix it?  Can they save the day?

Please.  There are hundreds of movies I can go to this year to see plots about humans.  Believe me, most of them will be better.

Enough with the humans.  When I go to a Transformers movie, I want to see robots.

What Happened To Transform?

That’s not the worst of it.  For the half of the movie that does include robots, there is the second problem. They don’t transform!

I know, it sounds ludicrous, but let me say it again.

Part of the plot includes about 200 deceptigons descending onto Earth for global domination.  They don’t transform.  They just fight as robots.

Why even call them Transformers?  They are supposed to be robots in disguise, not just robots.  Let’s just call the movie: “Humans and Robots 3: All the Same, All the Time”.

Message to Paramount

Every brand has a reason to exist, and Transformers definitely has a reason to exist.  It exists to provide people with a colorful futuristic world where there are robots that transform.

If you make a Transformers 4 (and let’s be clear, I hope you do) please make sure if possible to make the movie about robots that transform.  You will get the full ticket price (3D IMAX) from me.

This weekend, I was having a friendly debate with a close friend about the state of the open web, when the now typical issue rose up: Apple, it’s support of native applications, and the resulting impact on the web.  I immediately thought about the fact that, in the 1990s, we would have never have dreamed of the technology landscape of 2010 — a landscape where Apple was the dominant force in mobile computing.  A world where we would see a massive resurgence and interest in client applications (yes, that’s what those pretty iPhone and Android apps are).  A world where Apple was the most valuable technology company in the world.

Then it hit me.  The parallel to one of the best science fiction stories of all time.  In fact, it’s the story that led to the name of this blog.

Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy.

Asimov’s Foundation is based on the future history of the Galaxy, when a lone scientist, Hari Seldon, invents a new science called “Psychohistory“, that allows him to predict the future.  This science allows him to project that the Galactic Empire will crumble and bring about 30,000 years of dark ages.  Instead, he develops a plan to create a “Foundation” to preserve knowledge, and reduce the period of regression to a mere 1000 years.  Unfortunately, his plan is disrupted by an unpredicted complication.

Check out this synopsis from wikipedia, and see if it sounds familiar:

The Mule is a fictional character from Isaac Asimov‘s Foundation series.^[1] One of the greatest conquerors the galaxy has ever seen, he is a mentalic who has the ability to reach into the minds of others and “adjust” their emotions, individually or en masse, using this capability to forcibly enlist them to his cause. Individuals who have their emotions adjusted behave otherwise normally, with their logic, memories and personality intact; even if they are aware of the manipulation, they are unable to desire to resist it. This gives the Mule the capacity to disrupt Seldon’s plan by invalidating Seldon’s assumption that no single individual could have a measurable effect on galactic socio-historical trends on their own, due to the plan relying on the predictability of action of very large numbers of people.

Tell me that doesn’t sound like Steve Jobs.  You can read the full article here.

Just replace:

• “Steve Jobs” for “The Mule”
• “Apple” for “The Union of Worlds”
• “The Open Web” for “Seldon’s Plan”

And I think you have a fair approximation of what’s happened in the last five years.

One of the hottest debates in mobile right now is whether to focus on the mobile web or native applications.  Ironically, Apple is the one who started this debate, since they were the first company to launch a phone with a truly modern web browser (Mobile Safari), and then proceeded to launch a simple, accessible native application platform on top of it.

In all seriousness, the reason that the native applications on the iPhone (and iPod / iPad) are such a viable threat is due to the fact that they are working.  When I say working, I mean that any company who takes their mobile web property, and then deploys a native iPhone application, tends to see a significant boost in their engagement metrics.  Apple has solved a distribution and engagement problem for mobile applications at an unprecedented scale, and it shows in the numbers.  Metrics usually speak louder than philosophy when making tactical decisions, which is why you see the incredible investment and interest in native applications for iOS devices.

In the story, the Mule is defeated by the Second Foundation, and rendered harmless and without ambition.  He dies without a successor, hence the name “The Mule”.

I think the question we should all be asking at this point is, “Is there a Second Foundation?“

To some it’s a mashup of “Dancing With Wolves” and “Ferngully: The Last Rainforest.” But James Cameron’s “Avatar” has stormed the international box office with a global taking of more than $1.6 billion and may very well be on its way for a sequel … or two.

“I have a trilogy-scaled arc of story right now,” Cameron told MTV. “But I haven’t really put any serious work into writing a script.”

Avatar is highly derivative of other stories and science fiction, and as an avid reader of the genre, I thought I could take a crack at a potential, obvious premise for the backstory of Avatar 2.

Premise: It’s five years after the first movie.  There has been peace on Pandora, as Sully and Neytiri have ushered in a new age of cooperation and understanding between the tribes of the Na’vi.  The humans have been evacuated, with the exception of a small set of scientists who have been given permission to continue their efforts to bridge the learning and knowledge of the two cultures.

However, there have been unusual occurrences on the planet.  The behavior of the flora and fauna on Pandora has been unpredictable, confusing Neytiri who utters more than once that “this has never happened before”.   Modifications of some species begin to appear, as well as completely unknown species are discovered.  The scientists can’t explain it, and Sully tries more than once to communicate with Eywa, with no answers.

Silently, a massive human invasion fleet is on its way to Pandora.  The resources of Pandora are too valuable, and once the Na’vi attacked the corporation, it justified a larger military involvement at 100x the scale of the original movie.

It turns out, however, that the biology of Pandora was too idealistic to have naturally evolved.  After all, every creature sharing a common communication link is incredibly unlikely.  10 foot humanoids with carbon fiber skeletal structures also seems a little far fetched.  It turns out that Pandora is a very special planet, because it’s entire eco-system of creatures was engineered by an advanced race.  That race left Eywa, a massively parallel organic computer, in place, dormant, to monitor the situation and ensure that Pandora progressed as planned.

When Eywa awoke, it began taking emergency measures to modify and enhance existing species against the potential threat.  And it sent an interstellar signal to its creators, to let them know that all was not well with Pandora.  That’s right.  The creators are coming…

… there.  That’s enough for Avatar 2.  Avatar 3 can then focus on what the master plan of the creator race was after all, when the Pandora experiment goes awry.

Given the evolution of the Aliens story (also by James Cameron), I actually think this is a plausible direction.  There is a parallel between the plot surrounding a single ship facing one alien in the first movie, and a massive military engagement with a massive alien force (and new creatures) in the second movie.

Please note: I have absolutely no data whatsoever about the actual direction of Avatar 2.  This is just speculation on my part, as a science fiction lover.  Any reflection of the real plot or premise for Avatar 2 is purely coincidental.

The concept is borrowed from “The End of Eternity“, one of the classic science fiction novels from Isaac Asimov.  The book imagines a future with time travel, and the guidelines that govern its use:

There is a group of people (only males) who are called The Eternals. They live outside of ordinary time and space in a man-made construct called Eternity. The Eternals can move back and forth between Eternity and Earth, entering into any time period of Earth’s history. Their mission is to make Reality Changes, changes in the course of human history that will result in an improved Reality. They try to do this with the help of computers that can predict how even subtle changes will alter Reality. There is an art to finding the minimal intervention that will result in a desired Reality Change. There is a special change called “The Minimum Necessary Change“.

I’ve been surprised over the years how often I find myself using this concept, the “minimum necessary change”, to help frame potential solutions to problems.

In some ways, it’s a fairly obvious outcome of a scientific education.  Occam’s razor demands that, all things being equal, we bias towards the simplest explanation.  It’s not a far stretch to morph that concept into a bias towards the simplest solution to a given problem.

Seasoned product managers are also familiar with another, related concept, the “minimally viable product”.  The MVP, of course, is the minimal number of features necessary for a product to be successful at achieving it’s business & product goals.

Today, at LinkedIn, I was in a fairly intense meeting discussing potential solutions for a product that we’re trying to roll out in the next few weeks.  A fairly significant issue has arisen, and the team has been debating solutions.

It’s very easy for product managers and engineers to sometimes get caught up in “redesign fever”.  An unexpected issue or constraint arises that wasn’t expected.  Immediately, smart people will retrace their steps back to the beginning, and imagine a radical new design for their product that incorporates that new issue.  The problem is, there are always new issues.  There are always unexpected constraints.  Redesign fever can and will prevent products from converging, and prevent teams from shipping.

I’ve found that the best way to resolve these types of issues is to clearly define the problem, brainstorm potential solutions, and then way the pros/cons of each.  Not rocket science.

However, make sure as part of the exercise that the “Minimum Necessary Change” is one of the solutions that is part of the decision set.  It helps frame the costs (and benefits) of more elaborate solutions.  In fact, the intellectual pleasure of finding a simple, elegant solution to a complex problem can turn into a highlight for the entire project.

If you believe in fast iteration, in shipping product quickly and frequently to incorporate real user feedback into your designs, then more often than not you’ll find that the Minimum Necessary Change is your friend.

First off, I know that the movie is doing really well.  I also know that almost everyone seems to really like it.  So I don’t expect this post to be popular.  Still, there were a few small things (and one large thing) that bothered me about it, and it seemed blog worthy.

The big issue is the premise of the “reboot” logic.  This movie was explicitly designed to appeal to a whole new audience, and as a result, it deviates in many ways from the previous “canon”, ie, the character & future history established by the other movies and TV Series.

Unlike Superman Returns, or The Dark Knight, however, this movie tries to explain away the differences with a plot device.

The plot device is as follows:

A Romulan captain of a mining ship, in the late 24th century, witnesses the destruction of Romulus.  Infuriated, he blames Spock for failing to save the planet (and his wife and child).  He attacks (old) Spock, falls through a black hole and ends up in the early 23rd century.  As a result, the timeline is forever changed, because the first thing he does (almost) is kill George Kirk, James T. Kirk’s father, putting him (and Starfleet) on a different path.

Ugh, it sounds worse when I write it.  It felt pretty par-for-the-course in theater for a Star Trek time-travel plot.

Here’s the big problem. The last two years of the Star Trek series Enterprise were literally based on the Temporal Cold War.  (In fact, this was an extension in some ways of the “Relativity” episode in Star Trek Voyager and the “Trials and Tribble-ations” episode of Deep Space Nine.)  Without descending into a geek singularity, the basis premise is that in the future, time travel technology is mastered, leading to a set of accords among governments to “protect” the timeline.  Some people violate those accords (“The Temporal Accords“), and thus there are future Federation people and ships whose purpose is to help apprehend these criminals and restore the original timeline.

I’m not talking about one or two flaky episodes here with a minor inconsistency.  I’m talking about dozens of episodes and a major timeline of future history with key events between the 20th century all the way to the 31st century.

In any case, in order to believe this plot reboot, you have to believe that somehow with all those time ships and policing, Agent Daniels, the USS Relativity, and all those others just let a random mining captain from Romulus rewrite the history of the Federation without correction.  They go to huge lengths to save Captain Archer, but not Captain Kirk?

Sorry.  That doesn’t work.

I think what I’m more disappointed about is that the movie didn’t even try to explain it away.  For example:

Old Spock from the future, for example, could have added 30 seconds to his explanation to either New Kirk or New Spock to say that this timeline is permanent, or why it won’t be fixed.

Spock: “In general, major timeline changes in the past have been corrected by the Federation in future centuries.  However, we had been warned that the use of “red matter” could leave us vulnerable to untrackable temporal events.  In my rush to save Romulus, I have put the entire future at risk.”

This really wouldn’t bother me if the movie was a clean reboot of the series, like Battlestar Galactica.  But J.J. Abrams is trying to have his cake and eat it too.  He clumsily and awkwardly brings everyone together for the new Enterprise crew (exactly how unlikely was it that Scotty would be on that one base on that one moon…)  In some ways, the half-hearted attempt to maintain continuity with the time travel device is worse than just doing a straight reboot, no questions asked.

Now I realize I fall into a very tiny minority of people who even watched Star Trek Enterprise (or Voyager for that matter).  And I realize I fall in an even smaller fraction who liked Enterprise.  (1 in a million?)

Still, if they wanted to hardball ignore the series, they could have just asserted something early that made it clear that the series Star Trek Enterprise didn’t exist in this universe (ala Superman III/IV being axed in Superman Returns).  For example, they could have just asserted that this was the first human starship with the name Enterprise.

The most ironic element to the reboot plot device is that the one series it doesn’t change is Star Trek Enterprise, because that series takes place before the federation was founded!  So in this timeline, we don’t know whether there will be a Captain Picard, a Deep Space Nine, or a Captain Janeway.

But we do know, of course, that Scott Bakula was captain of the NX-01 Enterprise.  Rich, rich irony for fans who hated that series.

Don’t get me wrong – I liked the movie enough to see it again, and I think it achieved its goal of reaching out to people who have never seen Star Trek before (or didn’t watch much of it.)  I was actually surprised to see so many “wink wink, nudge nudge” moments in the film – references to other characters, catch phrases, moments, etc.  When Spock gives the transwarp transport formula to Scotty, I half-way expected some reference to transparent aluminum (Star Trek IV).

Maybe that’s what bothered me the most – they clearly put some effort into lining this up with canon in minor ways that didn’t really matter, but then ignored the big gaping hole around time travel.

Anyway, just for fun, here are some other small nits that bugged me:

• There is a canyon in Iowa?
• Was the Nokia placement really necessary?  Did it even make sense?  There are still private companies in the future?  They still operate?
• Wow!  The Enterprise is really big now.  Huge.  How big is the crew?  That Romulan ship must be immense.  Kirk can just run around and find his way?  It must be miles long!
• Captain Pike decides to make a not-quite-graduate with 3 years in the academy First Officer.  Really?  Maybe they know more about nature vs. nurture in the future.
• Sulu carries a sword around with him?
• Movie jumps the shark when Kirk crash lands on the ice planet/moon.
  • First, he plays Empire Strikes Back with the native wildlife (unnecessary).
  • Second, he just happens to crash within a few miles of Spock?
  • Exactly how close is this moon/planet to Vulcan, so that it appears huge in the sky of this world?
  • Spock is placed within walking distance of a Federation outpost, and is waiting for… ?
  • Scotty just happens to be stationed at this outpost?
  • Spock doesn’t go with Kirk because he doesn’t want to hurt the bonding experience for Kirk & Spock?  Seriously?  He’s really taking this new timeline thing in stride.
• “Red” matter?  That’s what they went with?  “Red” matter?  Was this sponsored by Bono or something?
• Flagship of the fleet goes to new graduate.  I know there isn’t supposed to be a lot of politics in the future, but I have to think someone got passed over here and is kind of pissed about it.

Looking forward to Terminator Salvation (which deals with timeline inconsistencies better), Up, Transformers, GI Joe, Harry Potter…

So far, despite the debut on Friday, it looks like my traffic may have peaked yesterday, on Saturday.  5380 hits to the blog that day, with my most popular BSG posts taking the top 5 slots for article popularity.

Why?  Check out the top 10 referring searches from Google, Yahoo, etc:

Notice a pattern?  I’ve discovered that my blog post is the number one result in Google for the search “fifth cylon”.  At least, it is today.

Over 200 hits to the post “The Fifth & Last Cylon” yesterday alone.

I’m even getting referral links from O’Reilly!  Love it.

No matter how I try to diversify this blog, ever since my first Battlestar Galactica post in 2006 (which still gets comments regularly), I continue to get massive traffic at key points in each season.

The only thing I think will be greater than the excitement for the series finale is the empty realization afterward that there is, in fact, no more.

Now for the ultimate spoiler…

… I am the fifth cylon.

January 16th, 2009

Sci Fi: Catch the Frak Up!

This type of snarky, quick-fix summary became big a few years ago as studios struggled with ways to get audiences to pick up serial dramas after the first season.  Unlike sit-coms, it really does matter if you’ve seen the earlier seasons, and they really don’t want you to opt-out of the whole series.

Whatever the reason, hat’s off to the BSG team.  I’ve seen every episode and I found this 13-minute video incredibly useful.  It reminded me of so many sub-plots and facts that I had forgotten.

Battlestar Galactica resumes on January 16th.  Be prepared and catch the frak up.

Judge for yourself.

How very Gen Y.

I’m excited to see the hip, young remake of Star Wars announced any day now.

The number of people who read my blog always surprises me.  What surprises me even more is that almost everyone who tells me this asks when I’m going to post about Battlestar Galactica again.

Since January is around the corner, it’s about time for another post.  Here we go.

First, there is a Season Four promo up on SciFi now.  If you haven’t watched it, you have to.  Now.

SyFy Portal broke a story yesterday that basically says that they’ve known the identity of the Fifth Cylon for some time.  They don’t come right out and say it, but they give a list of the “Top Five Candidates”.  I thought I’d reproduce the list here, with my own comments on their likelihood:

• Lee Adama. Adam’s Odds = 1%. Sorry, exactly how would Adama raise a Cylon from birth and not know it?  To justify this, pretty much everyone would have to be a Cylon in one form or another.  I like this theory even less than Zak Adama… I’m giving it 1% out of respect for those who believe, and as a hedge against the remote chance of lameness on the writers’ part.
• Felix Gaeta. Adam’s Odds = 50%. Some potential indicators that Gaeta is the one.  First, he helped the resistance, like the other four of the final five.  Seems to have always been around the one in command – either Adama or Baltar.  Sings strange music when injured, as if he is enjoying the “humanity” of pain and emotion.  Also, killed the doctor with a pen to the neck in a fairly brutal way.
• Laura Roslin. Adam’s Odds = 4%. Sorry, I know this is a favorite for some people.  “Imagine the drama if Adama’s love interest is a Cylon!”  Maybe if Battlestar Galactica were on Lifetime I’d buy it.  But not on SciFi.  Not with this writing crew.  I’m giving it a nudge above Lee Adama because at least it puts a Cylon at the head of everything from the start, answering the question of why she was the only surviving member of the cabinet.
• Ellen Tigh. Adam’s Odds = 20%. Not a terrible option, given that Colonel Tigh is one of the five, and the resurrection of Ellen would be an interesting cathartic moment for Saul given the murder.  Also helps explain the visualization of Number Six as Ellen, somewhat.  Problem with this answer is, well, it’s not really that interesting.
• Cally Tyrol. Adam’s Odds = 25%. Am I the only one who was glad to see Cally die?  Really hope it’s not this one, but it adds a very strange option to the mix, since it makes their baby a product of two Cylons.  Always nice to have a Cylon hater turn out to be one.  I personally can’t imagine this as a good choice, but so many people like it, I’m bumping the odds based on crowd-sourcing.

Of course, I still like the idea of Zak Adama as the final cylon, since his ghost has been haunting the show since the beginning.  But too many people think that it can’t be a character we haven’t seen before.

Battlestar Galactica resumes on January 16th.

I really have nothing more to add to this.

* For those of you who aren’t Star Trek fans, Wil Wheaton played the fairly annoying boy genius Wesley Crusher on Star Trek: The Next Generation.

I’m not a LOLCATS fan, and I don’t own cats, but I do love a good Dune reference.

rebelsnoopy, on June 7th, 2008 at 1:52 am Said:

From reading peoples theories about who the last Cylon is. People always assume that whomever it is will suffer while they are seeking redemption.

Hybrid prophecy/Razor: “And the fifth, though still in the shadow yet clawing for the light, hungry for redemption, that will only come in the howl of terrible suffering”

I suggest that the last cylon wont suffer.

But that someone else in the fleet, and I really think the people in the fleet will suffer. There will be another terrible tragedy and this last Cylon will do something incredible to save the Colonial fleet. Therefore redeeming him/herself.

That is exactly right.

The last cylon isn’t hungry for redemption for something they did wrong… they are hungry for redemption for what the Cylons did by committing genocide against the 12 colonies.

My guess is that these last two episodes of the half season get us to the reveal of the fifth cylon.  I then believe that the last 10 episodes of the final season will be the story arc around Earth & resolution.

Love it.  Read the story here, at SciFi Now.

One fun snippet:

Wired: You mentioned TiVo. Do you think you benefited from DVD box sets, TiVo timeshifting, the ability for people to go watch all of season one?

Moore: Absolutely. It’s a totally different world, and it plays to our audience. The fans of this genre traditionally lead all these technologies. The early adopters, the people who are very facile with computers and tech, and they will find the show in all these different formats. It absolutely has helped us.

Wired: Even being able to tell the non-fans, look, just go get the box set?

Moore: It’s great. That phenomenon has definitely occurred, too, where people who would not sample the show, who wouldn’t tune into something on Sci Fi Channel, much less called Battlestar Galactica, people would then press on them a DVD. They became fans. That happened a lot. People just put it on their iTunes. I bemoan the loss of NBC Universals relationship with iTunes for this show.

NBC’s decision to basically thumb their nose at their customers, their fans, around a theoretical strategic positioning on digital delivery is doomed to failure.  Not sure if the current management at NBC will get it, or whether they’ll have to be replaced (ala Disney/Pixar) to heal this one.  They have forgotten that the alternative to Apple’s rich ecosystem is widespread, DRM-free piracy.

They’ll figure it out soon enough.

Still, I felt I had to write this post, given all the excitement two weeks ago about someone “cracking” the Entertainment Weekly “Last Supper” photo from earlier in the year.  You can read about the detailed analysis here (which would actually make Dan Brown proud ala “The Da Vinci Code”), but at the end of the day, the conclusion is wrong.

Starbuck is not the final Cylon.

True, she’s the “Harbinger of Doom” and she will lead the humans “to their end”, but she’s not a cylon.  Sorry, not dice.  Fact is, she doesn’t fit any of the known clues left about the fifth cylon, and Moore has basically gone on record stating that she is not a cylon, but something else.

Since, I’m on the topic, let’s cover what I’ve been pondering lately: the comments from the “First Hybrid” in the Razor movie, and the recent episode from Friday, “Faith”:

• From the episode “Faith” that aired on Friday:
  

  It’s at this moment that the Hybrid grabs Kara and communicates a semi-vague, yet straightforward message:

  - The dying leader will discover the truth about the Opera House.
  - The missing 3 will be used to find the Final 5.
  - The final 5 come from the home of the 13th tribe.
  - Starbuck is the harbinger of death that will take them all to their end.

• From the movie, “Razor”:
  

  At last, they’ve come for me. I feel their lives, their destinies spilling out before me. The denial of the one true path, played out on a world not their own, will end soon enough. Soon there will be four, glorious in awakening, struggling with the knowledge of their true selves, the pain of revelation bringing new clarity, and in the midst of confusion, he will find her. Enemies brought together by impossible longing, enemies now joined as one. The way forward at once unthinkable, yet inevitable. And the fifth, still in shadow, will claw toward the light, hungering for redemption that will only come in the howl of terrible suffering. I can see them all. The seven, now six, self-described machines who believe themselves without sin, but in time, it is sin that will consume them. They will know enmity, bitterness, the wrenching agony of the one splintering into the many, and then they will join the promised-land, gathered on the wings of an angel. Not an end, but a beginning.

So this brings me to my current thinking – everything the First Hybrid said is coming true, so there are likely more clues there.  Note the reference to “the wings of an angel”, which Kara Thrace was described as in this last episode.

The hardest part for me to rationalize in the current “four cylons” is Colonel Tigh.  Adama has known him for 40 years, since his youth.  That means Tigh got old… I didn’t know cylons could age.  But humanoid cylons didn’t come into being until well after the first Cylon war, so he can’t actually be a cylon… unless he either pre-dates the Cylons.  The quote from the hybrid suggests he is not a cylon per se, but from Earth.  Thats confirmation that cylons were not invented by the colonies recently, but may have existed long before.

That ties in with the them that “all of this has happened before, and all this will happen again”.

My favorite comment on my blog posts has been the ones that theorize that this is all some sort of elaborate simulation… somewhat like in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.  The Cylons killed their human masters long ago, and they repeatedly seed and build the colonies to repeat history and try to learn from it.

I doubt that will be the answer, but there is definitely a strong theme here that says that the Cylon/human issue has dated back well before cylons were “theoretically created” by the colonies.

The only non-linear hint here is that “Adama is a Cylon”.  Given the recently leaked backstory for the new series “Caprica”, it seems that a humanoid Cylon was made for the Adama family to replace Bill Adama’s lost sister… if his sister was Cylon, is it possible he is also?  Or that he had a model made to replace Zak?

We’ll see.

There is a very good write-up on BuddyTV.  It’s worth reading.

Let’s summarize what was great about the third episode of this season:

1. Cylon civil war heats up. This could be going in a couple directions.  Pretty obvious issue with giving the Centurion’s access to higher-level thinking.  Hello?  Rebellion against the humanoid cylons.  Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?  Like the rebellion 40 years ago against the human colonists?  Also having the Cylons self-destruct helps lead us towards some sort of human victory – there has to be some form of Cylon destruction – right now, the Cylons are too powerful and eventually they will crush the humans unless they either (1) find help or (2) self-destruct.  Not sure which it will be yet, but the current thread opens up (2) as an options.  Last note: are we going to see the emergence of true individual behavior in the Cylons, as a virus?  Happened with Baltar’s 6, now the Boomer 8.  Not good for the robots.  Not good at all.
2. Some of the “final four” are definitely acting Cylon.  Tory is starting to act like the new Number 6, before she went soft.   Sex with Baltar, flirt with Tyrol, kill Callie?  Not bad for three episodes.
3. Cally dies. Nice to see that Battlestar hasn’t lost its guts yet.  Of course, they could wuss out and make Callie the final cylon…  of course, they’d have to explain the Tyrol-Callie baby at that point, since it would be Cylon/Cylon.  Let’s hope they don’t.  Let’s hope they had the guts to kill an empathetic character, cruelly, and without remorse.   Battlestar has to stay dark to stay true to its roots.

Other cool stuff, of course, but had to comment.   Add yours below.  I’ve really been enjoying the comment stream on the previous fifth cylon posts here and here.  Check them out, I’m getting two or three new comments there every day.

Can’t wait until Friday…

It’s a little sad too, the way that this last season of “The Wire” was sad. Sad because yet another great TV show is ending, and it’s tough to see what might take it’s place.

If you haven’t been reading the spoilers and potential plot summaries about the upcoming BSG spinoff “Caprica”, another one is up on SyFy Portal. Check out this portion of the plot concept:

William Adama, who will be 9 years old in the series, actually had a sister. But both his mother and sister are killed in a suicide bombing that also took out Zoe, the daughter of Daniel Graystone, a wealthy computer engineer and designer who is trying to build an “intelligent robot.” The terrorist attack bring together Daniel and Joseph, but Daniel grieves in a different way. He discovers that Zoe had a far better understanding of robotics and computers than even he did, and uses that technology to help build the first Cylon … with Zoe’s personality.

Joseph ends up helping Daniel to create robotic versions of not just Zoe, but of his own daughter, Tamara, as well. Unlike Daniel Graystone, however, Joseph changes his mind about having Tamara created in robot form, and eventually reveals to his son William that their name is not Adams, but instead is Adama.

Now remember, this new series is being created by the people who know exactly who the fifth cylon is, and largely how BSG is going to wrap up. In some ways, this is like the Monty Hall problem in statistics – Monty knows which door has the Cadillac behind it, so his choice is not truly independent.

There are some who think the fifth cylon is Roslin, Baltar, or even Admiral Adama. All of these possibilities are contradicted by the clue from the Entertainment Weekly article – none of the humans in the picture is a cylon. There are others who vote for Gaeta, since he’s been suspiciously close to the action the entire series… kind of like Wedge Antilles in Star Wars. I’ve seen votes for the Tom Zarak, Dee, or even Starbuck.

It’s hard to be certain, of course, but I’d say that the plot summary for Caprica raises some questions… like whether or not humanoid cylons actually pre-date the Cylon war. The idea that there effectively was a proto-Cylon “Adama” raises some possibilities.

I just wonder if we’re going to start seeing more references to Zak Adama in this fourth season…  there was that statement that, “Adama is a Cylon”.

Anyway, we’ve got at least eight or nine weeks of great TV ahead of us. Actually, right now, with “John Adams” on HBO, it’s promising to be a good April.

Update (4/22/2008): New post on Episode 3 of the 4th Season: Ties That Bind.

Update (11/26/2008): New post on Final Five Candidates for the Fifth Cylon (Possible Spoilers).

April 4th.  10:00PM.  Sci-Fi Channel.

Some news tidbits from Buddy TV, which covered the Battlestar Galactica news conference:

• We get 10 episodes.  The last 10 episodes will likely be in 2009.  (Writer’s strike)
• Shows will be on scifi.com at noon that day for early viewing.  Nothing specific on iTunes.
• Greenlight to the prequel TV series pilot, “Caprica”, which will focus on a time, 50 years before the show, before the first Cylon war.  Will be a 2-hour movie in the fall.
• No vote on the movie of Battlestar Galactica post-season 4.

As the article closes:

The cast just received their first post-strike script and will resume production next week. Moore stated that, in writing the final season, his primary goal is simply to bring everything home and do justice to the series he has created. When asked about possibly expanding to a Battlestar Galactica film after it’s over, Moore’s answer was a definite “No,” claiming the series would not translate well to the big screen.

Can’t wait.

In any case, I now know a few new things:

1. There is an endless supply of almost meaningless detail about timelines, people, and battles that are sometimes self-contradictory and totally separate from the movies.
2. There is a very cool Wikia site called “Wookiepedia” that has an almost endless supply of Star Wars information, and it’s free.
3. There is a new comic book series called “Star Wars Legacy” that takes place 137 years after the Death Star was blown up, in a bleak future where the Republic & Jedi have fallen to a new order of the Sith.

As an interesting trivia item based on (3), I also discovered what I imagine it would look like if Darth Maul and Angelina Jolie had a baby: her name is Darth Talon.  Enjoy.

Anyway.

Great article today in SyFy Portal. (similar coverage on BuddyTV.) It’s a teardown from the recent Entertainment Weekly coverage of Season 4. They are very clever, and managed to squeeze some hints out of the 2-page spread which is designed to mimic Da Vinci’s “The Last Supper”, except with a silhouette of the last, unknown Cylon.

The trick is, of course, that anyone else featured in picture CAN’T be the final cylon.  You definitely want to click through here to the EW article & interactive picture.

So where does that leave us? From the article (now’s the time to stop reading…):

The photo spread, which can be viewed here shows 12 different characters from “Battlestar Galactica,” and an obviously empty location. That spot, says executive producer Ronald D. Moore, is being held for the final Cylon.

“We have not yet revealed the final Cylon,” Moore told the magazine. When the writers asked if that means everyone else sitting at the table is definitely not that last Cylon, Moore was probably the most direct he’s ever been on potential show spoilers.

“You ferreted that out pretty slyly,” Moore said. “I didn’t want to give that away.”

So who is a Cylon and who isn’t? The table features six already revealed Cylons: Michael Hogan’s Col. Tigh; a new Cylon model of Number Six played by Tricia Helfer named Natalie; Number Six (possibly Head Six thanks to the red dress and Moore’s description) herself; Michael Trucco’s Anders; Aaron Douglas’ Chief Tyrol; and Athena, played by Grace Park. Those who aren’t Cylons, and probably won’t be Cylons at all, include President Laura Roslin (Mary McDonnell), Lee Adama (Jamie Bamber), Gaius Baltar (James Callis), Kara Thrace (Katee Sackhoff), Karl “Helo” Agathon (Tahmoh Penikett), and William Adama (Edward James Olmos).

Strangely, my original post on spoilers for the Final Five is still one of the top posts on this blog.

Things get moving again in March.  Enjoy.

Update (4/6/2008): New post online about “Caprica” and implications for the possible fifth cylon.

Update (4/22/2008): New post on Episode 3 of the 4th Season: Ties That Bind.

Update (11/26/2008): New post on Final Five Candidates for the Fifth Cylon (Possible Spoilers).

Here is their post on my favorite author, Isaac Asimov.

I’m still waiting for the conversion to the World Season Calendar, with its 91-day months and its special “Year Day” and “Leap Day”.

Is it just me, or is the failure rate of new series going up?  I’m not sure, but I’m getting a little tired of investing hours into a new series, only to find out that it’s cut off before it really gets somewhere.  Maybe I should bag the whole thing and move to purely watching good series on DVD or iTunes (once NBC realizes they are completely off-base taking their content off iTunes).

Well, I had been meaning to post this all season, and now, I catch this article on BuddyTV, which indicates that NBC has passed on filling the last 9 episodes of Journeyman this year, basically putting the nail in the coffin for the series.

So this Wednesday, December 19th, the show is basically over:

The series suffered from low ratings and the network allowed its option for a full season order to lapse by the December 11 deadline for renewal.  While there has been no official announcement from NBC, such an action effectively implies that the series has been cancelled.

So, before the sun sets on this series, let me explain, with two days of potential relevance, how I would have liked to have seen the series evolve.

The rationale for Dan’s time travel that I would have liked is as follows:

• Dan, Livia, and other time travelers are all linked in some sort of master plan to alter the time line, or rectify it, for some reason.
• Each “mission” that they take are a set of carefully orchestrated minor changes that each feed on each other to create bigger and bigger effects.
• We’d start to see people or changes that Dan and/or Livia have made snowballing – the boy saved doesn’t just create a technology to help the blind see, but a blind man helped by the technology becomes Governor, etc.
• In the end, there is a major, world-ending catastrophe, like in Heroes, that all these micro-changes compound to avoid.

I care less about the exact “orchestrator” of these micro-changes, and how it ties in with Dan, Livia, and other potential travelers.  It could be the scientist found a way to project the future, saw the disaster, and orchestrated this exact path to prevent it.  Why micro-changes?  To limit collateral damage from butterfly effect issues.  I’m thinking of something like Asimov’s time managers from End of Eternity.

Here is what would have made me shut off the show immediately:

• Anything that indicated they were taking a Quantum Leap direction, with good & evil orchestrators of time travel
• Anything that indicated this was a mystical or magical phenomena vs. science-based (got close tonight on this, by the way, with the psychic)
• Anything that sounded like Dan was there to “just do good” and “fix things that went wrong”.  I’ll take my karma from “My Name is Earl”, thank you very much.

HBO better get moving on some new series.  I just don’t trust the major networks to do any of this well, ever.

If you are one of the few people also watching the show, let me know what you think.

I wasn’t planning on it, but I was offered free tickets by my Mom, a Harry Potter fan, and I couldn’t let her stay up that late and wait out in the cold.   So, after arriving at the theater at 10:30pm, and getting into the theater at 11:15pm, watching trailers start at 12:15am, at 12:35am, we began watching Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Overall rating: B+.  It was a good movie, and I’m fairly sure I will watch it several more times when it comes out on cable and DVD.

In fact, the only problem with the movie really is the problem with the last two Harry Potter movies… the books have become so large that there is no reasonable way to capture them in a 2-hour movie.  I feel like they keep getting trapped in the middle:  too long and with too little context for a viewer who hasn’t read the books, but too short and with too little detail for someone who has.

I really wish they would learn from the Lord of the Rings success, and make an extended 4-hour version of the movie, mini-series length, for DVD.  Tens of millions of Harry Potter fans would buy it, and it would be a better movie to stand the test of time 10 or 20 years from now.

In any case, it was worth seeing, and I’m glad I’ve re-read the fifth and sixth books in the series.  I’m all fresh and ready for the infamous Book 7, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, due to arrive in less than 10 days.

Battlestar Galactica: Ronald Moore Talks About Earth

One of the questions I like has Moore reflecting on what he believes is the most interesting about science fiction:

CRAVE ONLINE: A lot of viewers see very specific metaphors in the show for what’s going on in the world today. Do you ever feel like fans get too literal in their own interpretations, and do you ever wish that people would just relax and enjoy the show on its own merits?

RONALD MOORE: Part of the point of science fiction, at least in its roots, was always to give the audience an allegory to present a metaphor for what was taking place in the culture. I think we’ve always enjoyed, and taken a certain satisfaction in, the fact that there are those who watch the show and assume that there is a liberal bias and those who watch the show and assume there’s a pro-military bias, and that’s how it’s supposed to work. You’re supposed to bring your own point of view to it, and then be able to extrapolate out whatever messages you want. The show tends to not be terribly definitive. We were pretty clear from the outset that this wasn’t going to be about protagonists espousing lessons and rules, and arriving at the end to save the day and tell everyone what was right and what was wrong. The line separating the protagonists and antagonists would often blur with the audience often asking themselves if they’re rooting for the right side. There’s always going to be a question mark of sorts at the end of most stories, and I think that applies to the political element as well. There really isn’t a definitive answer to anything that’s being espoused by any given story. It’s more just about the idea that there are two sides to every equation.

This is interesting to me, in particular, because this is why I’ve always been drawn to science fiction. So much of political and moral debate can unwittingly be shaped by assumptions about technology. It’s always fascinating to see how different assumptions about what is and isn’t possible can shape debate about very real human issues.

Supergirl will indeed be a new character in Smallville when it returns for Season 7. More on this at SyFy Portal.

Clark’s cousin Kara “was sent to Earth in a ship that arrived at the same time as baby Kal-El’s,” executive producer Al Gough told TV Guide. “But there was a problem and she’s been in suspended animation for the last 16 years. We’ll find out in the season premiere that the big dam break in last season’s finale is the reason she’s finally awoken.”

I have a special place in my heart for truly awful movies… and the Supergirl movie from 1984 is one of the worst ever. Unbelievably bad.

There has been a lot of coverage of this, so I’ll just point to the best article on the topic that I’ve read on SyFy Portal. The 22 episodes that will begin in January 2008 will be the last of the series.

Kudos to the producers and writers for capping this series off with a game plan and a strong finish. With these serial dramas, I’m beginning to have more and more respect for the teams that have the sense to not draw them out endlessly. Check out this quote from Ronald Moore:

“The temple gave D’Ann (Lucy Lawless) the glimpse of the Final Five that triggers the beacon that points the way to Earth,” Moore said. “At that point, you’re promising the audience that you were moving toward revelation. By the end of the season, we had taken that moment to decide that we were going to reveal four of the Final Five, and one of the characters had been to Earth and seen it.

“That’s probably the moment when we started feeling it. If we don’t start moving in that direction, you get to a place where you just feel like you’re jerking off the audience or treading water instead of just moving forward and pushing limits. We didn’t want to be in that position.”

Another interesting tidbit was some additional detail on “Razor”, the BSG made-for-TV movie airing this fall.

The demand for new posts on Battlestar Galactica has been relentless.  I had sworn off them for the time being, because the new season doesn’t start until January 2008, and the TV movie doesn’t air until this Fall.

Some interesting articles this week on BuddyTV and on SyFy Portal have some emerging tidbits on Season 4, which began shooting this week.  Go ahead and dig in if you are interested.  Basically, it sounds like a couple of new characters from Pegasus are going to play a role in Season 4.  Kendra Taggert is apparently one of the names to know.

Interestingly, the movie this Fall will be based on Pegasus, and its story between the attack on the colonies and its rendezvous with Galactica.   This is one of the advantages of the series – there are a lot of potential stories to be told, even within the known timeline.

Big day for Battlestar Galactica. Out of respect for those who missed the Season 3 Finale, “Crossroads, Part 2″, I delayed this post until now. Please be careful reading ahead if you are averse to spoilers.

First off, the interest in the Battlestar Galactica finale was pretty amazing, if my blog is any indication. Here is a snapshot that shows my blog as one of the 50 or so that were big enough to be sampled on the homepage of WordPress.com:

This was reflected in the record-setting blog stats for the day. On Monday, this blog saw a record 4,593 page views, almost all of which went to the top posts on my blog for Battlestar Galactica topics. The post on the Final Five was a big winner:

The source of this amazing traffic is simple, and to me, kind of surprising. When you do a search for “Final Five Cylons” on Google, or even Google Blog Search, you get terrible results. In fact, it seems like my posts are one of the few out there on this topic that actually discuss any theories. You can see the search terms that led to my blog on Monday:

One last source of traffic which is a new one for my blog is my favorite information site, Wikipedia. Surprisingly, my blog is now a reference (number 1) in the online encyclopedia, as an example of how fans now think that Starbuck may be a Cylon.

The link to my blog is literally a superscript (1) in the middle of a multi-page post on the topic “Kara Thrace”. Still, that little linked number was the source of over 100 page views to my blog, in just one day, beating out the sampling from the WordPress.com homepage:

I am a huge fan of Wikipedia, and I believe that if the natural search engines aren’t careful, they may be disrupted by wiki-based content aggregators like Wikipedia for the “peak” informational queries on the web. This might be just a single data point, but this tells me that that Wikipedia as a traffic source for information should not be underestimated.

In any case, the long wait is now setting in for Battlestar Galactica fans, as Season 4, which is now 22 episodes, will not kick off until January 2008. The wait for ’08 is on.

Here are a few pieces of information, however, to navigate the gap.

First, this article explains that there will be a 2-hour television movie in the fall, based on the Pegasus and the timeframe between the Cylon attack and the rendezvous with the Galactica. It’s before the timeline of Season 3, but Ronald Moore states that it will be relevant to the arc of Season 4.

Second, this interview with Ronald Moore in TVWeek covers a set of questions about the story, the return of Starbuck, and the softening ratings for the series this season.

Third, this interview with Ronald Moore in the Pittsburgh Gazette answers some questions about Season 4 (including some spoilers!) He actually answers the question on whether or not the 4 crewmembers in the Season 3 Finale are Cylons or not (they are). He also strongly implies that Season 4 may be the end. He has stated on many occassions that he wants to have the creative freedom to wrap up the series properly, and not get cancelled leaving things unresolved. Odds are, the 22 episodes of Season 4 will end the series.

Lastly, this three-page interview with Ronald Moore in Salon covers almost everything.  Some duplicate data here, but I’ve saved the best for last.

OK. I think that’s enough Battlestar Galactica posts for now. You know, this blog was going to be more about personal finance this year. So, back to the real stuff, but boy, what a ride.

First, if you are not caught up, a couple posts you should read:

1. My post on the Death of Starbuck. (this is currently the most viewed post on my blog)
2. This great summary of the Crossroads, Part 1 episode from this Sunday, March 17th.

Now, onto the spoilers. If you don’t want to know what’s going to happen, or more accurately, what I think is going to happen, then stop reading already. No one is forcing you.

Most of my good material is from BuddyTV, which has the best spoilers post on the season finale that I’ve been able to find.

First, Starbuck. She is not dead. Rumors abound that attempt to prove that she is not dead. Current spoiler sites are saying that she will be back in the season finale, claiming to have visited Earth, and ready to guide the fleet to the planet.

Second, who are the final five cylons? Here is a quick shout out to Elliot, who seems to have correctly commented that Anders, Tory, Tigh, and Tyrol are all Cylons… or are they? The spoiler just says that they are hearing the music, and they meet and decide that they think they are Cylons. But does that make sense?

To me, it would make more sense if they actually were not Cylons, but have been tampered with somehow to “hear the music”. Thus, like Baltar before them, they think they are Cylons, but actually aren’t.

It’s also possible that some are, and some aren’t. Tigh would be hard to explain, given his long history with Adama. After all, the war with the mechanical Cylons was only 40 years ago. They didn’t have humanoid models back then.

Anders, on the other hand, is easy to see as a Cylon. First, Starbuck just “found” him as a rebel on Caprica. Second, all of Starbuck’s hallucination about being married to a Cylon could reflect a subconscious realization that actually her husband was a Cylon. Tory is also easy to see.

Personally, I will be disappointed if the Final Five Cylons end up being just other individuals on the crew. I think the show has set up a very interesting question with the Final Five:

• Why don’t the other Cylons want to speak about them? Did the Final Five leave because they disagreed with the path taken by the other Cylons? Did they do something unspeakable?
• Are there many versions of the Final Five? Are they functionally like the other seven, or do they have special abilities? Are they more human? Do they resurrect?
• Why did Number 3 react the Final Five the way she did? She clearly had see the one she apologized to before.

Lastly, what is up with the virtual Baltar in Caprica Six’s head, and the virtual Six in Baltar’s head?

Very excited for the season finale, but I hope they don’t short-change these issues with a “quick fix”.

Please comment below – let’s use the next few days to assemble as many guesses as possible about the finale and Season 4. We’ll then see who’s right after March 24th.

Update (3/26/2006): See my final post on the Season Finale and the Wait for 2008, now available.

Update (1/8/2007): Possible spoilers for the fifth & last cylon, as we approach Season 4.

Update (4/22/2008): New post on Episode 3 of the 4th Season: Ties That Bind.