Comments on: Obama Victory Probability at Over 85% (Iowa Electronic Markets) http://blog.adamnash.com/2008/05/07/obama-victory-probability-at-over-85-iowa-electronic-markets/ The personal blog of Adam Nash Wed, 15 Feb 2012 02:29:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Chris Yeh http://blog.adamnash.com/2008/05/07/obama-victory-probability-at-over-85-iowa-electronic-markets/#comment-24843 Thu, 08 May 2008 06:25:50 +0000 http://psychohistory.wordpress.com/?p=699#comment-24843 After Pennsylvania, I issued a challenge to any Clinton backers–I’d take bets of any size at 2:1 odds on Hillary becoming the Democratic nominee. No takers.

Of course, I was that confident because I knew I could arbitrage against the real probabilities!

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