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Archive for December, 2007

Do I Agree with Paul Krugman on Trade?

Not that it would be so terrible, given that Paul Krugman is clearly a fairly brilliant economist.  But over the past few years, as he has become more and more of a shrill political voice, and less and less of a measured economic voice, I’ve found myself disagreeing with him more often than not.

First, hat’s off to Google for sharing their visiting scholar program online.  I found this video, from December 14th, on Youtube this week.  It’s a great talk, from Paul Krugman, about the causal elements behind the current housing liquidity crunch.  (It’s over 1 hour, including Q&A.  And yes, I listened to the whole thing.)

But that’s about housing, not trade.  However, hearing Krugman speak live (vs. his normal Op-Ed tirades), reminded me of how intelligent and thoughtful he can be.

Interestingly, in the same week, I caught this piece from his NY Time blog (Dec 28, 2007).   It’s about the current references to his original work on global trade, which is where I remember first seeing references to Krugman’s work.  He references this blog post, which discusses some of Krugman’s original positions on trade in some detail.

Of course, Krugman wrote a full Op-Ed on trade in the December 28 edition of the New York Times.  It’s available online here.  Strangely, it’s an extremely rational piece, and it makes me wonder if his politics are moderating a bit as we get closer to the 2008 election.

Some paragraphs worth sharing:

…recently we crossed an important watershed: we now import more manufactured goods from the third world than from other advanced economies. That is, a majority of our industrial trade is now with countries that are much poorer than we are and that pay their workers much lower wages.

For the world economy as a whole — and especially for poorer nations — growing trade between high-wage and low-wage countries is a very good thing. Above all, it offers backward economies their best hope of moving up the income ladder.

But for American workers the story is much less positive. In fact, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that growing U.S. trade with third world countries reduces the real wages of many and perhaps most workers in this country. And that reality makes the politics of trade very difficult.

This is perhaps one of the most fairly balanced assessments I’ve seen on free-trade recently.  The macro-economics behind the benefits of free-trade between nations is overwhelmingly positive, in terms of the aggregate economic gains.   But I’ve learned to be very suspicious of arguments that persist over long periods of time, between well-educated people, on topics that theoretically should be very simple.  If they really were that simple, you’d expect that over time, most well-educated people would resolve the discussion and move on.

The oscillation between free trade and protectionism doesn’t surprise me historically at a political level – it’s pretty easy to understand why the steel worker, seeing his wages drop and/or his local plant disappear, wouldn’t push politically towards protectionism.  But there has to be something more to this argument.  The macro-economics of this situation are clear: cheaper foreign steel means less money for domestic steel makers, but cheaper steel for everyone else in the country.  That may not be much consolation for the steel worker, but it is the answer on why free trade in the aggregate, tends to benefit the country more than it hurts it.

(No, I’m not going to touch the recent China poisoned toys issue.  Yes, it’s obvious that we need some amount of regulation to prevent poisoned toothpaste and lead-painted toys, etc.)

More from Krugman’s article:

All this is textbook international economics: contrary to what people sometimes assert, economic theory says that free trade normally makes a country richer, but it doesn’t say that it’s normally good for everyone. Still, when the effects of third-world exports on U.S. wages first became an issue in the 1990s, a number of economists — myself included — looked at the data and concluded that any negative effects on U.S. wages were modest.

The trouble now is that these effects may no longer be as modest as they were, because imports of manufactured goods from the third world have grown dramatically — from just 2.5 percent of G.D.P. in 1990 to 6 percent in 2006.

And the biggest growth in imports has come from countries with very low wages. The original “newly industrializing economies” exporting manufactured goods — South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore — paid wages that were about 25 percent of U.S. levels in 1990. Since then, however, the sources of our imports have shifted to Mexico, where wages are only 11 percent of the U.S. level, and China, where they’re only about 3 percent or 4 percent.

This is interesting.  Theoretically, it has always been roughly assumed that the high wage countries compensate for their wages, somewhat, with high productivity.  More value created per worker, usually due to heavy investment in education, capital, infrastructure, and low-risk environments.  But it’s possible that while mostly true, that logic reaches it’s limit at some point.  If labor in some countries is priced at 3-11% of US costs, and our trade shifts meaningfully in that direction, then that becomes a competitive depression on wages.

Once again, the economics are fairly clear that in the aggregate, those lower wages should mean cheaper goods for everyone.  But if a large percentage of our population faces this pressure all at once, it could lead to some extremely negative adjustment periods for not just those people, but for the entire economy.  This, in fact, is a potential explanation for some of the income disparity we’ve been seeing this decade as trade has shifted to China & Mexico.

One flaw I can see here already, potentially, is that a ever-declining percentage of our workforce is in manufacturing.  The last number I recall seeing was as low as 19%.  (please comment if I’m mistaken here). It’s tough to get to “most workers in this country” from there.

Now here is the part that scares me a bit – Paul Krugman’s conclusion:

So am I arguing for protectionism? No. Those who think that globalization is always and everywhere a bad thing are wrong. On the contrary, keeping world markets relatively open is crucial to the hopes of billions of people.

But I am arguing for an end to the finger-wagging, the accusation either of not understanding economics or of kowtowing to special interests that tends to be the editorial response to politicians who express skepticism about the benefits of free-trade agreements.

It’s often claimed that limits on trade benefit only a small number of Americans, while hurting the vast majority. That’s still true of things like the import quota on sugar. But when it comes to manufactured goods, it’s at least arguable that the reverse is true. The highly educated workers who clearly benefit from growing trade with third-world economies are a minority, greatly outnumbered by those who probably lose.

As I said, I’m not a protectionist. For the sake of the world as a whole, I hope that we respond to the trouble with trade not by shutting trade down, but by doing things like strengthening the social safety net. But those who are worried about trade have a point, and deserve some respect.

He’s right, the critics have a point.

Too often, opponents to free trade are kowtowing to special interests or misunderstanding economics.  Despite that fact, however, it’s clear that there are some significant macro-economic impacts from free trade that can not be brushed away, particularly around wage pressure and the percentage of the population affected.

I haven’t had time to formulate my own theories on how to weave through this complexity, but chances are that there is some analysis that could better quantify the impact of wage pressure of a given trade relationship.  That would give some guidance about when to slow down the pace of opening markets to phase in the pressures rather than having them catastrophically adjust over relatively small time periods.

2008: The Year Apple Becomes a Studio?

It’s the end of the year, and this is generally the time when journalists will put out sensationalist headlines about their predictions for the upcoming year, decade, millennium, etc.

Well, I’m not a journalist.  But I do have a blog.  So let me indulge here in at least one crazy projection that might actually make strategic sense.

Is 2008 the year that Apple decides to become a studio?

This might sound far-fetched.  After all, Apple is a technology company, not an entertainment company.  But I’ll argue that the same forces that pulled HBO into the innovative strategy of creating original content, now being emulated by every cable network from Showtime to FX, could also apply extremely well to Apple.

Let’s walk through this carefully.

First, can Apple move in the direction of producing original content? 

The answer here is clearly yes.  Apple now has the most important asset in entertainment – wide-spread, inexpensive distribution.  Apple has tens of millions of iTunes customers who have proven themselves more than willing to download content, even at a price.

Right now, roughly 2/3 of the cost of Apple’s service is actually royalty payments to the content providers.  If Apple produced their own content, those costs are replaced with actual production costs. HBO began their original content push with documentaries and short, 1/2 hour episodic comedies.

Apple currently has $16B in cash, and a market cap of $170B.  HBO put $30M into its 2-season run of Rome.  Apple could easily afford those budgets, and offset their costs with free distribution through iTunes.   The question is how much is a premium content brand worth?  The answer is billions, and Apple has the capital to invest against that opportunity.

Second, should Apple become a studio?

I’ll argue yes here, but with a number of caveats.

First, like HBO, they’ll have to walk a tight line between the need to license content from other major studios, and their own competitive efforts.  HBO managed to use original content to differentiate their offering, and Apple could do the same thing with iTunes.  HBO established itself as a premium brand and experience with their content and series, and Apple has similar brand elements.  HBO, however, had initial success with licensing movies from most studios before moving to original content – Apple right now is only tight with Disney.

Second, Apple has to be careful with pricing.  If their content is free, or cheaply priced, it might upset the difficult negotiations Apple continues to have around flat pricing on both the music and video sides.  You could argue that Apple would offer studios the same deal – cut your licensing fee and we’ll cut the price, but it’s a problematic area for Apple given their position on pricing.

Third, Apple has to watch out for their broad demographic.  HBO has a particular demographic – adult, high income, educated.  They used their platform (paid cable, commercial free) to produce content that better met the needs of that audience.  iTunes is completely mass market at this point, so it’s unclear what type of content Apple would build – maybe they would need multiple “studios” to address different markets.

Despite those caveats, the advantages of leveraging their lead with the iTunes distribution channel into a premium content play is extremely appealing, economically.  Just like in-house brands are economically too valuable to be ignored for a retailer, the huge fees paid to the content houses for video are extremely attractive when you own the distribution channel.

A quicker path for Apple would be to potentially buy HBO off of the ailing Time Warner, or possibly even NBC from GE.  That last option would have the added benefit of letting Steve relieve the current NBC executive staff of their current, difficult salaried positions.  :)

Like the iPod/iTunes combination, unique Apple content that can only be accessed through iTunes could potentially boost the value of iTunes, and boost the potential success of the content by special access to the iTunes channel.

So, file this away in your bookmarks for crazy Apple predictions.  We’ll see what happens.

No More Godless Presidential Dollar Coins, 6 New “State” Quarters for 2009

Today, the White House announced that it has signed into law H.R. 2764, with $555 Billion in total spending, and which includes over $10 Billion in earmarks. That part is not really good news. You can read the text of the bill, if you want to, here.

However, as Coinnews.net reported today, the bill includes two key coin-collecting gems.

6 More State Quarters. Yes, you read that right. Just because we ran out of states does not mean that the US Government will let the best new coin series end without a fight. Six more coins will debut in 2009, highlighting 6 great territories that aren’t states, but still deserve to be celebrated with two bits:

  1. The District of Columbia
  2. The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico
  3. Guam
  4. American Samoa
  5. The United States Virgin Islands
  6. The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

“…Coins minted under this subsection honoring the District of Columbia and each of the territories shall be issued in equal sequential intervals during 2009 in the following order: the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the United States Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.”

The US Mint Press Release is here. Designs for these coins have not been published yet, but I will post them here when they are ready. Note that this is 6 coins for 2009, not the normal 5 per year that have marked the program to date. Without this bill, the quarter would have returned to its old design in 2009, since Hawaii, our 50th state, gets its own quarter at the tail end of 2008.

No More Godless Presidential Dollar Coins. Or at least, they’ll be harder to come by. This bill also includes text that mandates that the text “In God We Trust” move off the edge of the coin, and to one of the faces. Due to space considerations, this will likely mean moving to the face of the coin with the President.The text was moved to the edge, of course, to give more space on the face of the coin for the Presidential image. But, with the release of the first coin, there was a large error rate with the Philidelphia mint version that led to the creation of “godless dollars“, with no edge text. Despite the fact that this problem has not been repeated with the 3 subsequent coins for John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison, a cottage industry has sprung up of people sanding the text off the edge of dollar coins.

In any case, the bill does not say when this change will be made, but that it “shall be put into effect by the Secretary of the Treasury as soon as is practicable after the date of enactment of this Act.”

The full coverage from Coinnet.news is here and here.

Two thoughts on this news:

  1. Holy 2009 Proof Set, Batman. Let’s count up the coins for the 2009 proof set:

    That’s a total of 18 coins, and that’s not including the “P” and “D” versions, or any special proof varieties, like the copper-versions of the new pennies. That is going to be one fat proof set, likely 4 lens, minimum, at a pretty steep cost.  (Note: based on comments, I’ve correct the lines on the Native American dollar coins to correctly reflect their mintage at one per year, on the back of Sacajawea dollars.)

  2. What price the original Presidential dollar coins? The original Presidential dollar coins may now become more valuable, as they may end up the only “edge-incused” US coins ever. Not sure how this will affect prices in the short term, but now that this is confirmed, it’s an interesting side effect.

blog.adamnash.com

After running this blog for almost 18 months, I’m realizing that it’s confusing for people to have to remember a URL like “psychohistory.wordpress.com” to find this blog.  It’s my personal blog, and people expect to find it by typing “adamnash.com” into their browsers.

I haven’t decided to 86 adamnash.com yet, but as of today, this blog is going to start being served off:

blog.adamnash.com

The Psychohistory title and URLs will remain, as well.

How Many Five Year Olds Could You Take In A Fight?

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How Apple Addicted Are You?

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Isaac Asimov on Wikipedia

How can you not get lost in Wikipedia sometimes?

Here is their post on my favorite author, Isaac Asimov.

I’m still waiting for the conversion to the World Season Calendar, with its 91-day months and its special “Year Day” and “Leap Day”.

Goodbye, Journeyman. How I Would Have Liked The Series to Go.

I’m getting a little tired of this.

Is it just me, or is the failure rate of new series going up?  I’m not sure, but I’m getting a little tired of investing hours into a new series, only to find out that it’s cut off before it really gets somewhere.  Maybe I should bag the whole thing and move to purely watching good series on DVD or iTunes (once NBC realizes they are completely off-base taking their content off iTunes).

Well, I had been meaning to post this all season, and now, I catch this article on BuddyTV, which indicates that NBC has passed on filling the last 9 episodes of Journeyman this year, basically putting the nail in the coffin for the series.

So this Wednesday, December 19th, the show is basically over:

The series suffered from low ratings and the network allowed its option for a full season order to lapse by the December 11 deadline for renewal.  While there has been no official announcement from NBC, such an action effectively implies that the series has been cancelled.

So, before the sun sets on this series, let me explain, with two days of potential relevance, how I would have liked to have seen the series evolve.

The rationale for Dan’s time travel that I would have liked is as follows:

  • Dan, Livia, and other time travelers are all linked in some sort of master plan to alter the time line, or rectify it, for some reason.
  • Each “mission” that they take are a set of carefully orchestrated minor changes that each feed on each other to create bigger and bigger effects.
  • We’d start to see people or changes that Dan and/or Livia have made snowballing – the boy saved doesn’t just create a technology to help the blind see, but a blind man helped by the technology becomes Governor, etc.
  • In the end, there is a major, world-ending catastrophe, like in Heroes, that all these micro-changes compound to avoid.

I care less about the exact “orchestrator” of these micro-changes, and how it ties in with Dan, Livia, and other potential travelers.  It could be the scientist found a way to project the future, saw the disaster, and orchestrated this exact path to prevent it.  Why micro-changes?  To limit collateral damage from butterfly effect issues.  I’m thinking of something like Asimov’s time managers from End of Eternity.

Here is what would have made me shut off the show immediately:

  • Anything that indicated they were taking a Quantum Leap direction, with good & evil orchestrators of time travel
  • Anything that indicated this was a mystical or magical phenomena vs. science-based (got close tonight on this, by the way, with the psychic)
  • Anything that sounded like Dan was there to “just do good” and “fix things that went wrong”.  I’ll take my karma from “My Name is Earl”, thank you very much.

HBO better get moving on some new series.  I just don’t trust the major networks to do any of this well, ever.

If you are one of the few people also watching the show, let me know what you think.

Public Humiliation on ValleyWag

It was bound to happen sometime…

Valleywag: LinkedIn Done Briefing Reports, Announces Developer Platform 

I think it’s somewhat of an honor to be picked on by ValleyWag.

I will admit, I shouldn’t have been sitting hunched over for that shot… we did it last minute.

Oh well.  The price of YouTube fame, I guess.

Happy 400th Post!

I didn’t even notice last week that my post on Activision & Blizzard Entertainment was my 400th post. What started as a 30-day resolution to start blogging again in August 2006 has turned into quite a collection of topics & content.

Some of the basic stats to date:

Blog Stats

  • Total Views: 227,463
  • Best Day Ever: 4,536

Totals

  • Posts: 400
  • Comments: 1,139
  • Categories: 35
  • Tags: 17

I think the weirdest thing about my 400 posts is the strange collection of search terms that now lead people to my posts. Check these 20 out from the last 2 days:

Today

Search Views
south park 10
high dividend mutual funds 3
boston accent 3
craigslist depreciating asset 3
pretty colors 2
marissa mayer 2
south park wii episode 2
electoral college chart 2
wii damage 2
PICTURE OF JACQUILINE KENNEDY 2

Yesterday

Search Views
south park 51
High dividend mutual funds 10
hot movies of 2007 6
wii damage 6
South Park 4
ntfs mac 4
hottest movies of 2007 3
battlestar galactica theories 3
battlestar galactica final five 3
us state map 3

Overall, I seem to hover now between 500-700 hits per day, with about 100+ people subscribed through RSS, 20+ through email. Not bad for a personal blog with a mixture of topics ranging from game theory to Battlestar Galactica to coin collecting…

Activision Blizzard: New Video Game Giant, More MBA’s per Square Inch?

Sorry, I don’t know how I missed this news for two days.

Activision, maker of the hit series Guitar Hero, is merging with Vivendi Universal Games, which owns Blizzard, maker of World of Warcraft.  Blizzard, as I’ve posted here previously, is in my opinion the best video game studio of the past decade, bar none.

According to this New York Times article, the combined gian will roughly match Electronic Arts in revenue and size:

The deal announced Sunday will essentially leave Electronic Arts neck-and-neck with the newly combined entity, called Activision Blizzard (named for the biggest studio at Vivendi Games, Blizzard Entertainment). Electronic Arts is projected to have around $3.7 billion in sales this year, while executives of the merging companies said Activision Blizzard should have around $3.8 billion.

Investors seemed to applaud the deal. Activision’s stock was up 20.7 percent for the week on Tuesday at $26.74. Vivendi said it would pay $1.7 billion, or $27.50 a share, and wind up with a 52 percent stake in Activision Blizzard.

The deal is a little worrisome to me, given the fact that Activision has had significant ups & downs in its history.  Blizzard, on the other hand, seems to bat 1000 year after year with every game they release.  (I am soooo looking forward to Starcraft 2 in 2008)

This part of the article gave me pause:

“Activision has more M.B.A.’s per square inch than anybody,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities. He argued that Mr. Kotick had taken a disciplined approach to running Activision, almost in the spirit of a packaged goods company like Procter & Gamble. “They run the company like a business.”

Is that a good thing?  Really?  Call me a hypocrite (since I do, in fact, have an MBA), but something about this line gave me the shivers.  In fact, just re-reading it now gives me the shivers.

More MBA’s per square inch than anybody.

Ugh.  That cannot be a good thing for a video game company.  I’m not sure that’s good thing for any company outside an investment bank, private equity firm, or a management consulting firm.

It’s like I just felt their ability to recruit rock star engineers fall through the floor.  Can you imagine the pitch:

Recruiter:  “Come join our engineering team!  We have free drinks, video games, great benefits, stock options, and more MBA’s per square inch than anyone else!”

Engineer:  “That sounds… ew.  oh.  geez.  sorry.  You’re breaking up.  I’ll call you right back.”

Ugh.

Sub-Prime Mortgage Humor: The Richter Scales

OK, so as I poke around the creators of the very funny Bubble 2.0 video I posted last night, I discovered a couple of things:

1) They seem to be a group of former Stanford Fleet Street a cappella singers (thank you, Rebecca, for this tidbit.  It explains Jerry Cain appearing in the previous video).

2) There are other Richter Scale videos on Youtube

For example, here is one that is specifically about the Sub-Prime Mortgage mess.

You can subscribe to all of their videos on YouTube here.  Here is a link to their website.  Yes, they have a blog too.

Here Comes Another Bubble: YouTube Video (The Richter Scales)

Hits a little too close to home… especially on the housing prices in the Bay Area. :)

So clever I watched it twice. Plus, I feel like being a fan boy because when they say “hire an engineer”, I’m pretty sure I know that engineer! :)

Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD: The Microsoft Conspiracy Theory

This article was funny enough that I had to share.

Engadget: Michael Bay’s format war conspiracy theory: it’s a Microsoft fix

Here is a tidbit:

Responding to a commenter angry over Paramount’s decision to burn Optimus and friends onto HD DVD only, Bay claims to have the inside track on the “corporate politics” at play here, suggesting that “Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads.” He goes on to claim that Redmond has only been financially backing HD DVD over “superior Blu-ray” to create “confusion in the market” until such time as high def digital downloading goes prime time.

I love it. This is fun stuff, if you are into meaningless format wars.

Truth be told, Blu-Ray should be king of the hill by now. HD-DVD was almost knocking on death’s door based on studio support, with most studios either deciding to support both or just Blu-Ray. That would have killed HD-DVD quickly, since a typical consumer would have just said, “buy the Blu-Ray, and get access to all movies”. This is on top of the fact that Blu-Ray offers higher storage capacity, and had early support from PC manufacturers like Apple. (Yes, I know the Blu-Ray players cost more, but I assume that problem gets solved quickly)

HD-DVD managed to prevent this fate this year by paying literally a $150M spiff to Paramount and Dreamworks to make their movies HD-DVD only. That pulled Shrek & Transformers into the “must have HD-DVD camp”, and thus the war rages on.

I could have some sympathy, as a result, for Bay’s theory, except for the fact that if there is any subsidy war in this market, Sony takes the cake. They are subsidizing a Blu-Ray player into every single PS3, plus some free movies, in order to get the expensive player technology into the market. That may not be $150M spiff, but it’s actually far more dollars when you assume hundreds of dollars of losses over millions of PS3 boxes.

Microsoft could have done the same with HD-DVD in the Xbox 360, but they chose not to, and made it an add-on product.

In any case, you can put me in the Blu-Ray camp. The minute the spiff runs out, Paramount & Dreamworks will rush back to Blu-Ray, and PS3 growth in 2008 should start to move the right direction. People want to buy movies, and as HD becomes the standard, they will demand high def DVD products. I wish I could promise you that iTunes will have an HD TV & Movie solution in 2008, but I think the big studios are running neck & neck with the music companies in trying to fight their customers instead of giving them what they want. (Right, NBC?)

Update (12/5/2007):  Ugh.  Engadget has an article today quoting an analyst projecting no end to the format war.  Stalemate.  Some of the comments make a case for cheap HD-DVD players and dual-disc production in China turning the war in HD-DVD favor.  I hope not.

Craigslist: To the Gentleman Who Called Me a Depreciating Asset

Just a quick update here.  It turns out that the woman who originally posted to Craigslist looking for tips on how to land a man making $500K+ per year actually responded.  I found the article on Best of Craigslist.

Since that post continues to be one of the favorites on this blog, I decided to add the content there as an update.  But since many people only consume the new articles via RSS, I’m putting this post up here as a quick link to the update.

Enjoy.

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